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WHY USE SCENARIO PLANNING IF YOU WANT A RESILIENT AND OUTCOME DRIVEN BUSINESS

Written by Ali Uren – Founder and Director of Kiikstart

There are two key reasons why scenario planning needs to become part of your strategic planning process.

  • It allows us to identify skill gaps and risks well in advance therefore allowing us to be increasingly prepared.
  • It is a well thought through process that allows you to think and consider several, alternative future developments/pathways.

By undertaking scenario planning, you can think ahead of time not when the change and disruption is impacting you when it becomes harder, more expensive and more overwhelming to find a smart solution.

The process referred to below allows you to respond proactively to how you design your business and people by:

  • Being proactive.
  • Not being reactive.
  • Being responsive.
  • Being effective

While strategic planning starts with the vision, scenario planning ends with the vision.

Scenario planning builds resilience and increases innovation because it requires you to change how you see skill gaps and risks.

innovation comes from your skill gaps and not your strengths, so you must make times looking in places that are not comfortable or normal for the business.

Strengths do not lead to the greatest impact or innovation because you are already good at it. The opportunity for improvement is always limited.

But skill gaps and threats this is where the gold is – the space between where you are and what you can create in terms of innovation is so much greater.

As such it is where your focus needs to be.

Commencing the Scenario Process – the first two steps of a six step process

Step 1: Brainstorm Future Scenarios

You need to understand your current reality as the first step.

Your business reality in terms of the skill gaps and risks now and into the future.

  • the life cycle of your product
  • shifts in society and what is now valued by your clients/visitors.
  • political conditions
  • health conditions
  • competitor’s analysis
  • existing partnerships and collaborations
  • technological advancement
  • changes in partnerships/collaborations

LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND THE VISITOR ECONOMY IS NO LONGER WORKING WITH THE SAME TIME FRAMES WHEN IT COMES TO PLANNING

The last year has taught us that the rate of innovation is accelerating and our business models and skill sets are running to keep up.

Our planning timeframes are getting shorter and a five to ten year plan is likely to be challenged due to a lack of adaptability and responsiveness.

When determining the future, you need to decide on a time frame in which to focus the scenario planning process.

Let’s say you are developing a scenario for the next 12 to 18 months; you will look at the past 12 to 18 months for reference as to what are likely to be the most important gaps and risks to prioritise within the process.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

2020/2-21 has likely introduced several factors to your business that were not present two years ago.

Having said that there have been changes in consumer trends that we were seeing for say the last four or five years, well before Covid -19 that we must be aware of.

Some I want to share with you that have a visitor economy slant but are relevant to nearly all businesses that have human contact include:

  • What you offer must be relevant and specific to your market/s– not generic. It must be distinctive.
  • Quality in terms of what you provide and how you deliver business will be essential.
  • It must be interesting and enchanting.
  • It needs to provide value for money – this does not mean “cheap”.
  • Personalised with a level of co-creation. Consumers want choice in how they connect with you and experience your service or product.  
  • It must tell a curious story that is real and authentic.
  • Hands on interaction with the product/service – meet the maker.
  • Has the ability to educate consumers and challenge commonly held perceptions in some way.
  • Your brand and style of business cannot be passive – it must make a statement about its position in the market.

Step 2: Identify trends and driving forces that impact your business

Step two is really about the projected forecasts in terms of change – what do we know is true about how consumer’s behaviour and values are changing.

You need to focus on the following factors whenever you are going for the identification of trends and driving forces.

● Who has an interest in these decisions?

● Who will be affected by them?

● Who could influence them?

Now the apparent driving forces are suppliers, customers, competitors, employees, shareholders, government and many more. Identification of the following factors about them is also essential.

● Current roles of the driving forces

● Their interests

● Their positions in the field

● Their progress over time

● Society and its structure, including demographic, economic and political factors, and public opinions as well.

● Markets and Customer Behaviour

● Technology and Innovation

● Your Industry competitive structure

● Your organisational capacities and core competencies

Separate those forces which are highly predictable and focus on the effects which are not likely to occur.

QUESTIONS TO HELP GUIDE WHERE YOUR PRIORITIES ARE

As it is impossible to hit everything within scenario planning you need to make smart decisions around what to include.

The questions below will help start a smart, focused thinking process.

  • How will/ or have consumer values changed in the last 12 months?
  • What are some of the health concerns people have post covid-19?
  • How will this influence their behaviour and how they want to interact with our business?
  • What will be the views of customers towards your product/experience?
  • What will they move towards in the coming 12 to 18 months?
  • What will be the rate of advancement of technology in your space?
  • What will be the approach of government in responding to challenges faced by industry?
  • How can new competitors disrupt your business?
  • What could existing competitors do to disrupt your business?
  • What are the challenges around staff and securing the right type of people for your business?

Curious to explore more about the benefits of scenario planning? Please reach out to Ali Uren on 0428593400, email enquiries@kiikstart.com or connect in via the Kiikstart Facebook, Instagram and LinkedIn pages.